PicoBusiness

Based on new media research, experts anticipate that predictions about the precise date of Peak Oil will, themselves, peak in 2014.

Expert Trendologist Hari Seldon described his predictions for us:

“This prediction is based on various factors – the nature of supply and demand, the historical record of predictions (Peak Whale Oil, Peak Steam, Peak Mule), the attention span of various media channels and psychomathic simulations of the entire Earth’s population.”

“Basically, ” Seldon said, “You’re going to see Peak Oil predictions continue to rise over the next few years, because the Media loves a crisis, and people generally need to fret about something, and most of their basic needs and wants have been met. Currently, the recession is the number one issue on the Fretometer, but over the next 3 years, as the economy improves, the recession will recede, and other worries, specifically Peak Oil will take its place.”

When asked about Global Warming, Seldon said “The recent criticisms of the CRU datasets and the IPCC documents has dramatically reduced worry in AGW. Good or bad, it is not nearly as threatening as it once was. Peak Oil, on the other hand, has a very obvious pain point – the cost of gas – and is easier for people to grasp.”

And why 2014? – Seldon: “What we can expect is an increase in oil prices as the economy recovers. This will, naturally, cause people to switch away from gas where possible, which will generally limit the price increase, just as it did in the summer of 2008. But that won’t be obvious early on, and the media will breathlessly extrapolate a linear trend, and predict gas prices of 10, 15 and $20 a gallon as we surge towards our productive peak.”

“However, ” Seldon continued, “the economy will switch away from gas as the price rises, by substituting walking, video conferencing, bike riding and combining trips, and this will significantly dampen demand. When the crisis fails to materialize a second time, and the media gets burned again, they’ll start to wise up that linear extrapolation of demand is foolish, and the demand for Peak Oil demagoguery will experience a rapid collapse, in the summer of 2014″

This is not helping us (as humans) have a rational conversation about this.

• Climate change belief is given same legal weight as religious beliefs
• James Hansen compares global warming to Holocaust
• Perhaps there is a case for making climate change denial a crime
• Calls for Nuremberg trials for certain highly-placed climate change deniers

There’s nothing particularly bad about accidentally letting non-peer-reviewed documentation into your official climate change summary document. It doesn’t make the whole process fraudulent, nor does it necessarily mean that the predictions are wrong. However, we shouldn’t be making major policy decisions based on this document.

• A boot cleaning guide
• Phil Jones at the CRU hid data – Guardian
• Lots of WWF-written papers referenced in the IPCC
• IPCC claims from student dissertation & Mountaineering magazine
• More WWF papers and Leisure and Event papers referenced in the IPCC
• IPCC chairman was informed of the issues with glacier melt before Copenhagen

moorewr

ARKHAM

Tharashk

If you believe that one can accurately analyze markets and make predictions such as ‘640k jobs created or saved by the stimulus‘, you should also believe that this study is true.

When they announced the bailout of GM, many libertarians predicted that the US government would not be able to resist meddling in GM’s business. Alas, it is happening

When they announced the Cash for Clunkers, libertarians predicted that it would reduce the supply of used cars, and increase demand, and also hurt the charity car donation business. Alas, this happened as well.

.. NASA has started down the road to reinvention with the addition of four new committees to the external advisory group that drives the agency’s direction.

Yes, I’m sure the committees will be fonts of innovation for NASA.

H/T: Slashdot

You know about some of the perverse things that happen in life – people are forced to wear seatbelts, so they feel safer, so they drive faster, which results in more accidents. People get immunized for diseases, so they feel safer, and hang out with sick people more, and contract other illnesses. People have low-deductible health insurance, so they go to the doctor more for minor issues, get lots of expensive tests, and increase the overall money spent on health care.

Well, add rescue GPSes to the mix

Wow, what an interesting result. Windex is next to Godliness

I will have to try this with my kids.

BTW, if you’re not reading Overcoming Bias, you are depriving yourself of an unbelievable amount of good information on a wide range of topics.

This has apparently been sitting in my ‘draft’ queue for several months now. No time like the present!

This is making the rounds of late.

My economist nose sniffs a bit of correlation-not-causation here.

1. Did they control for single-vs-married? Single women have natural incentives to be thinner than married women. Married women living in an apartment would seem to be more likely to be looking to trade up for a better mate.
2. Did they control for # of children? It is, alas, a fact that, statistically, the fewer kids one has, the happier one is. (hard to believe, given how much I enjoy my kids, but I am not entitled to my own facts)
3. They also mentioned that homeowners spend more time on household chores, etc. I believe it – my chore duty dropped precipitously once I started renting an apartment. Plus, I can afford to live closer in, so my trips to the store take lest time and my commute is shorter.

There are some very interesting points here.

http://www.atom.com/funny_videos/sw_retold/

Web 2.0 RC1.

It said Conan O’Brien for me. Interesting

The Volokh Conspiracy » Blog Archive » Globally Managing American Speech?.

This whole process of “engagement” on an issue like free speech by the US at the HRC or anywhere else in the international system is a mistake from the beginning. Among the many reasons is, first, that a process like that of the HRC is designed to lead to consensus, which in practice will mean some kind of compromise. But the whole point of freedom of speech under the First Amendment is that it is not open to compromise, and certainly not in the sense of elaborating standards from the outside for a sovereign people who govern themselves under a constitution.

Come now! Compared to the rest of the world, we are outliers on free speech standards. It is far past time for us to restrict our freedoms and join the international community!

all hail the lowest common denominator!